Huaibei Mining (600985): The profitability of East China coal coke leader is prominent and the forecast advantage is obvious

Huaibei Mining (600985): The profitability of East China coal coke leader is prominent and the forecast advantage is obvious

Company profile: Huaibei Mining Group, the controlling shareholder, injected high-quality assets, and the coal coke leader in East China reorganized the listed company, formerly known as Lei Mingkehua. The original main business was commercial explosion. The revenue was relatively stable, but the market development became more difficult.

In August 2018, which lasted a year, through a series of operations such as asset reorganization, the controlling shareholder Huaibei Mining Group’s coal coke asset main body Huai Mine shares were successfully listed. The listed company was also renamed Huaibei Mining. At present, coal, coal chemicalThe “one main and one auxiliary” business structure is mainly based on product production and sales, supplemented by civilian explosive products and related services.

The coal and coke assets injected into the listed company’s Huaishan Coal Mine are of better quality, and at the same time, the integrated operation of coal and coke has strong profitability.

According to the acquisition report, the mining rights assets of Huai Mining Co., Ltd. promised to gradually realize a net profit of RMB 76 from 2018 to 2020.

04 billion.

After gradual adjustment, Huaibei Mining realized net profit attributable to mothers in 201835.

5 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.

1% (adjusted for the same period in 2017 to 28.

800 million), ROE is 20.

9%.

Coal business: Coking coal resources account for a relatively high proportion, reserve coal mine resources focus on Inner Mongolia, progress in exploration rights transactions in Shaanxi Province. The four major coal companies in Anhui Province have their own characteristics, and their competitive advantages continue. The controlling shareholder Huaibei Mining Group has the advantage of a high proportion of coking coal resources.

The overall scale of the coal-injected Huai Mine coal business is at the mid-stream level of similar A-share companies. The recoverable coal reserves, between production capacity, production and sales and other indicators, are between Lu’an Huaneng and Xishan Coal and Electricity. Ton of coal is sold to similar companies.Forefront.

The company is currently in trial operation of Jianxin Lake Coal Mine in 2020. Reserve coal mine resources focus on Inner Mongolia and the progress of exploration right transactions in Shaanxi.

At present, the listed company has decided to apply for the new establishment of the Inner Mongolia Dongsheng Taokutu Minefield Prospecting Right. According to the company announcement, the Inner Mongolia Department of Land and Resources has approved the new application of the Taohutu Wellfield Prospecting Right and submitted it to the Ministry of Natural Resources. It is currently waiting for natural resourcesMinistry approval.

In addition, the controlling shareholder Huaibei Mining Group has the exploration and exploration rights in Gugucheng Exploration Area in Shaanxi Province. According to the Thunderming Chemical Acquisition Report, the National Development and Reform Commission has not yet issued the approval document for the development and construction project of the Gucheng Exploration Area in Fugu, and the relevant procedures are being processed.After obtaining the relevant approval documents of the National Development and Reform Commission, Huai Mining will officially start the acquisition.

Coking business: Coal coking integrated operation, scale and profitability are at the forefront of the industry, Lintong Coking Phase III gradually expands and extends the industrial chain According to the acquisition report, the company’s coking business is currently operated by Lintong Coking, using 8 55-hole 6 Rice top-loading coal coke ovens and four coke-quenching coke ovens produce coke, and coke oven gas produces methanol. The total scale is to produce 440 esters of coke, co-production of 40 esters of methanol, coal tar 30, and crude benzene 8 instead.

The overall coking equipment and production technology are at the advanced level in the industry, and environmental protection equipment installation standards have also been met. It is located in East China and has obvious geographical advantages. It will continue to benefit from the withdrawal of independent coking capacity in Jiangsu in the future.

At present, Lintong Coking’s overall coke production capacity and ton of coke profitability are at the forefront of the industry. According to the company’s annual report, the production and sales of coke will be replaced by 380 and 386 in 2018, and it will gradually reach production in 2019.

In addition, according to the speech given by Fang Liangcai, the general manager of the controlling shareholder Huaibei Mining Group, at the 2019 working conference, as the third phase project of Lintong Coking, the million-ton carbon-based new material sub-project will gradually develop in 2019, and the company’s coking industry chain is expected to further develop in the future.extend.

Overall point of view: The industry structure of East China coal coke has enhanced profitability and obvious advantages. 合肥夜网 The short-term coal coke steel industry chain will gradually enter the peak demand season, and coal coke prices are expected to stabilize and recover. In the medium and long term, the supply and demand of the coal industry will be maintained in the next few years.Basically, coal prices are expected to continue to run at a high level.

The size of the company, through asset reorganization, the controlling shareholder Huaibei Mining Group’s high-quality coal coke assets are injected into listed companies, and the scale of asset performance commitments injected from 2018 to 2020, and the long-term growth of the company is also worthy of attention.And the controlling shareholder Huaibei Mining Group internal Mongolia, Shaanxi coal exploration right transaction progress.

The company’s profits are mainly coal and coking 深圳桑拿网 business, and other businesses are mainly coal trading, material procurement and other businesses. This part of the business is large in revenue but the proportion of profit contribution is small and relatively stable. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021 will be 35.

8.1 billion, 36.

4.5 billion and 36.

51 ppm, with a fully diluted EPS of 1.

65 yuan, 1.

68 yuan and 1.

68 yuan, corresponding to the closing price on March 29, dynamic PE is 7 respectively.

2X, 7.

0X and 7.

0X, and the company’s current PE (TTM) is 7.

2 times, it is estimated to be the lowest in the coking coal sector (the existing coking coal industry PE (TTM) itself is 10).

9 times).

The company’s asset quality and profitability are at the forefront of the industry. We believe the company has room for improvement. We give the company a 9x PE valuation, which corresponds to a reasonable value of 14.

8 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: downstream demand is lower than expected, coal coke prices fall more than expected, safety accidents occur in coal mines, environmental protection and production limit upgrades, and the progress of prospecting rights exceeds expectations;